Not, not, not, not, not, not, not, not/Your academy

I know I like to talk smack about Oscars and Oscar prognosticators, but at the end of the day I'm just another hypocrite with expensive tastes likely to subsume his "principles," such as they are, in order to fulfill said tastes. Which is to say that, sure, if somebody wants to pay me to make Oscar predictions, I'll put my best foot forward, do the heavy lifting—again, such as it is—and deliver something resembling "the goods." Or goods. Which is to say further that, despite my protestations of utter incompetence, my pals at MSN Movies decided it would be a good idea to commission me to make my call on the six major categories. For who's gonna be nominated, not who's gonna win. It's like I get to be a "Guru O' Gold" unto myself, and stuff. In any event, whether you want to bet money based on my speculations is entirely your call, but hopefully everyone will be able to enjoy my wisecracks, not to mention what I believe passes for some kind of industry expertise. The piece is here. The image above is from, of course, once again, Frank Tashlin's Susan Slept Here. 

UPDATE, JANUARY 24, 2011, 8:45 A.M. EASTERN TIME: Ramin Setoodeh? What the fuck is he doing pretending to be an Oscar pundit on Today? Wasn't he supposed to be burned at the stake, or something? And Mo'nique? Again, I understand it's customery, but WTF? They pay her? There's gotta be a better way to start the morning, and I'm about to look for it. Anyway, just as I figured, I pretty much fucked the monkey, predictions-wise, although I DID call it for Bardem, and almost for Michelle Williams, to whom I send particular congratulations.

Comments

[Joel]

As I was watching Carlos, I kept thinking about how Ramirez fills so many of the Best Actor requirements: playing a well-known historical figure, gaining and losing a lot of weight, growing an ugly beard (a la Fat Clooney in Syriana), alternating between charismatic and psychopathic, and delivering the whole performance in five (more?) languages. Too bad it's ineligible. I didn't watch the Golden Globes, but the fact that Assayas won one of those of things surely makes them semi-respectable, right?

[Owain Wilson]

All I can say is, I'm glad you caved.

[jbryant]

I fear TRUE GRIT'S momentum is actually slipping, in spite of the b.o. success. As many have noted, it's getting little to no traction in the Oscar precursor contests. The Coens didn't even get a DGA nod. THE KING'S SPEECH just scored the Producers Guild award and seems likeliest to upset THE SOCIAL NETWORK, because of the general Academy demographic.

And I doubt SHUTTER ISLAND will make the Best Picture cut, though I hope I'm wrong (and Ruffalo has a better shot for THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT -- NYFCC winner, I think, and SAG nomination). One film that will surely make it is TOY STORY 3, which maybe you forgot about.

[S. Porath]

It seems highly unlikely that Shutter Island will get in there for anything, not even a token (richly deserved) production design award. I'm one of those who saw it as a one-trick pony, but with you and Jim Emerson guided me to a second viewing, which was one of the most stirring experiences I've had this year in the cinema. The film felt like it was from a different genre the second time around. I've dropped the ball before and since, but rarely have I felt like such an ungrateful cinematic simpleton as I did after that second Shutter Island viewing.

[Partisan]

If we took you and Kent Jones and the Siren and the National Society of Film Critics and all the blogs you have on the left, and you decided to chose all the oscars since 1927, under the rules that movies would eligible the year they came out, not when American distributors deigned to show them (unless the Academy actually nominated them another year) would Liv Ullmann win an oscar. Would Tarkovsky ever get a chance?

[Brian R.]

Mad props for incorporating Mission of Burma.